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VW: we are done with diesel push in the US

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Old 07-21-2016, 09:36 AM
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Originally Posted by tmfstyle
There will likely be a market for unfixed diesels, but for people like me who turn over cars every 3-4 years, I doubt that diesels will again be an option. For skilled do it yourselfers, and professional mechanics diesels could be very attractive at a price. Similar to the market for high end 12 cylinder Merc's and BMW's which can be prohibitively expensive to maintain and repair for most people. If I still owned the TDI I would accept a reasonable buy back offer and regretfully move on.
I owned a 2011 Jetta TDI. It was a great car, I traded it in for an A4 about a week before the scandal hit. (lucky timing). It's also important to consider that Deisel drivers typically load a lot of miles on annually (It's why the mileage factor is so appealing for most of them). I would expect that within five years, most on the road today will be in the 150-200K mileage range, and will likely be ready for retirement.
Old 07-21-2016, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by tmfstyle
I owned a 2015 Q5 TDI for almost a year before it was totaled by a reckless driver. Never owned a diesel before but quickly became a big fan of the torque, mileage, range and effortless power delivery. I thought any new car (other than sports cars) I would buy would likely be a diesel. I believed that fixes for current cars would likely impact performance and reliability but that, in time "clean" diesels could be engineered and I would be in the market again. Over time, I have read that NOX emissions are a big problem for all manufacturers of diesels, and barring a technological breakthrough, diesels will likely be phased out in the U.S. There will likely be a market for unfixed diesels, but for people like me who turn over cars every 3-4 years, I doubt that diesels will again be an option. For skilled do it yourselfers, and professional mechanics diesels could be very attractive at a price. Similar to the market for high end 12 cylinder Merc's and BMW's which can be prohibitively expensive to maintain and repair for most people. If I still owned the TDI I would accept a reasonable buy back offer and regretfully move on.
With this scenario, diesel passenger vehicles could become a niche in the used car market. It makes you wonder then, if the availability of fuel would diminish from current levels.
Old 07-21-2016, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Q5 Bob
With this scenario, diesel passenger vehicles could become a niche in the used car market. It makes you wonder then, if the availability of fuel would diminish from current levels.
Likely in my view. Local Chevron replaced diesel with non-ethanol because expected demand did not materialize for him.
Old 07-21-2016, 03:59 PM
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Yeah, it definitely feels like diesel is going to falter, despite it's popularity in Europe.

Especially now that Audi/VW are focusing a third of all R&D towards electric vehicles. Long term, electric vehicles are the right way to go.
Old 07-22-2016, 04:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Q5 Bob
With this scenario, diesel passenger vehicles could become a niche in the used car market. It makes you wonder then, if the availability of fuel would diminish from current levels.
There are still loads of trucks and buses that need diesel, and they're going to be on the road for years. At worst, availability will decline in urban areas where trucks etc. are less likely to fill up.
Old 07-22-2016, 09:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Transporter208
It will depend if the so called "fix" was done or not. I think pretty much anyone would agree that any "fix", if it happens at all, will certainly decrease performance in some way which will possibly drive the value down. If on the other hand no fix is done then my guess would be diesels will actually go up in value. Good old supply and demand will kick in. Time will tell. Stay tuned.
States that have annual inspections or emissions testing will be able to enforce the fix. In states that do not have such testing, I would still expect dealers to be leery of taking a diesel in trade that doesn't have documentation that the fix was completed. Even if proof isn't required initially, legislation could be imposed months or years later that will forbid owners from selling or trading dirty TDI's, or dealers from registering them. Unless VW will agree to fix your car at any time in the future, passing on the authorized corrective action seems risky.

A better workaround would be to have the fix done, then override it with an easily-reversible aftermarket tune. Unless that becomes illegal, too, of course. Given the attention the subject is getting, I wouldn't be surprised.
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