S5 Sportback gearbox issues- had enough
08-21-2018, 02:32 PM
#242
AudiWorld Senior Member
08-21-2018, 03:02 PM
#243
AudiWorld Senior Member
I take very strong exception to your comment “People thought having a computer in every home in 1988 was crazy.”
I started my career in Electronic Computers in the late ‘70s and, at that point, your assertion was correct. By 1982, when the IBM-PC was released, with PC-DOS and Basic embedded, for a cost of around $5000.00, people started to see things differently and the world started to take notice and startups got things growing. Moore’s lawtook over and within about a decade, computers were in most homes.
There me is no “Moore’s Law” for Battery technology or recharging stations that I’ve read about. And as far as Tesla and Musk — they are making progress but there is no expectation that they will, in the foreseeable future (key phrase here) make breakthroughs that will allow electric vehicles to replace internal combustion engines — either by new, undiscovered battery tech or by having charging stations on every corner.
Musk’s financial woes are a very large part of why traders have made Tesla the most shorted company in the history of the stock market and why he is talking to the Saudi Investment bankers about taking him private.
Placing orders for Tesla’s Electric Trucks is such a small percentage of the current truck order — and there is a massive backlog of long haul tractors in the market right now that trucking companies are booking freight orders 18 months in the future AND tractor manufacturers are way behind in filling current and future orders.
To my original point — Define the “future” you keep pointing to: 5, 10, 50, 100 years - then we can have a logical conversation. Until then — it’s all “Pie-in-the-sky” talk just like flying cars were when I was starting out. It’s good to dream about a better way — you just have to figure out a way to get there.
For the record — I hope you’re right, but I still doubt it’ll be within my lifetime and I’m currently 66.
I started my career in Electronic Computers in the late ‘70s and, at that point, your assertion was correct. By 1982, when the IBM-PC was released, with PC-DOS and Basic embedded, for a cost of around $5000.00, people started to see things differently and the world started to take notice and startups got things growing. Moore’s lawtook over and within about a decade, computers were in most homes.
There me is no “Moore’s Law” for Battery technology or recharging stations that I’ve read about. And as far as Tesla and Musk — they are making progress but there is no expectation that they will, in the foreseeable future (key phrase here) make breakthroughs that will allow electric vehicles to replace internal combustion engines — either by new, undiscovered battery tech or by having charging stations on every corner.
Musk’s financial woes are a very large part of why traders have made Tesla the most shorted company in the history of the stock market and why he is talking to the Saudi Investment bankers about taking him private.
Placing orders for Tesla’s Electric Trucks is such a small percentage of the current truck order — and there is a massive backlog of long haul tractors in the market right now that trucking companies are booking freight orders 18 months in the future AND tractor manufacturers are way behind in filling current and future orders.
To my original point — Define the “future” you keep pointing to: 5, 10, 50, 100 years - then we can have a logical conversation. Until then — it’s all “Pie-in-the-sky” talk just like flying cars were when I was starting out. It’s good to dream about a better way — you just have to figure out a way to get there.
For the record — I hope you’re right, but I still doubt it’ll be within my lifetime and I’m currently 66.
You ask me to define the future which sounds crazy to me. There are electric vehicles on the road now. Tesla outsold BMW, Audi and Mercedes on their home turf last month and has done it in the US on more then one occasion.
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/t...des-flagships/
This shows demand. You speak about Tesla and Musk's financial situation as if they are the only game in town. Tesla is just credited with getting the ball rolling I don't think they will be the top dog long term (the next 10 years, does that work for you).
The more players in the game the faster the ball gets moving and you fail to see that a lot more players are getting in the game. This is not "pie-in-the-sky" as you call it. It's a reality and happening right in front of your face.
Multiple sources to even further prove my point. They also have timelines so maybe this will "define" the future for you. I very much hope you are still alive in the next 10 years:
https://electrek.co/2018/05/09/audi-...-all-electric/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN1GY1BQ
https://electrek.co/2018/01/29/merce...ttery-network/
https://www.engadget.com/2017/12/18/...y-early-2020s/
Last edited by evanseric21; 08-21-2018 at 03:05 PM.
08-21-2018, 03:13 PM
#244
Permanent S Mode Member
Getting a bit off-topic but I have this scenario playing in my head where everybody in Miami owns an electric car. A hurricane is heading towards Miami and everybody needs to evacuate Florida. They all head north from Miami and everybody's battery dies around Orlando. Now what?
08-21-2018, 03:18 PM
#245
Club AutoUnion
Getting a bit off-topic but I have this scenario playing in my head where everybody in Miami owns an electric car. A hurricane is heading towards Miami and everybody needs to evacuate Florida. They all head north from Miami and everybody's battery dies around Orlando. Now what?
(1960s comedy bit from a now-discraced comic, who was pretty funny at the time)
08-21-2018, 04:15 PM
#246
AudiWorld Senior Member
Getting a bit off-topic but I have this scenario playing in my head where everybody in Miami owns an electric car. A hurricane is heading towards Miami and everybody needs to evacuate Florida. They all head north from Miami and everybody's battery dies around Orlando. Now what?
08-21-2018, 04:34 PM
#247
AudiWorld Super User
Half a million electric car trying to charge at one supercharge station, each car taking about a hour and a half to get a full charge. It will turn ugly real fast.
Last edited by The G Man; 08-21-2018 at 04:55 PM.
08-21-2018, 05:06 PM
#248
AudiWorld Senior Member
Half a million cars trying to refuel at the gas stations along the route gets just as ugly. we've seen it happen. What happens when the gas station runs out of gas?
08-21-2018, 05:11 PM
#249
AudiWorld Senior Member
Getting a bit off-topic but I have this scenario playing in my head where everybody in Miami owns an electric car. A hurricane is heading towards Miami and everybody needs to evacuate Florida. They all head north from Miami and everybody's battery dies around Orlando. Now what?
08-21-2018, 05:55 PM
#250
AudiWorld Super User
I'm not a Tesla fan, but evanseric's premise is correct: Electric vehicles are gaining a foothold and will gradually gain market share as more manufacturers introduce competitive (non-compliance vehicle) models. For many reasons, I don't think Tesla will be the dominant player in this market, but all of the major European brands are investing heavily and I expect the Japanese brands to follow. I expect that it will be a significant number of years (10-15?) before electric vehicles comprise the majority of total passenger vehicle sales, but it will occur at some point.
Last edited by JD15; 08-21-2018 at 05:59 PM.