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demand for E tron

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demand for E tron

 
Old 01-11-2019, 04:13 PM
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Default demand for E tron

anyone have any real insight on the demand or reservation list for the eton? i heard the first edition is full but really how long out is the reservation list? will this be something that will hold its value or drop like a rock? Seems new audi s are having a hard time moving, new a7, q8,a8 all over the showrooms. rewind 7 years ago and when audi launched a new model it was order only, full msrp. i placed an order for first edition wondering if really that rare. I'm a fan, not bashing, simply observations.
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Old 01-11-2019, 05:21 PM
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Seems I read that the reservations were over 10,000 worldwide. That's the only info they've put out there. IIRC, yearly production is scheduled to be only 20,000 units, so supply is pretty low.

I like the car. I like the size and the look. Options are fine as far as I'm concerned (didn't opt for first edition).
Pricing is pretty competitive in the EV segment (vs Tesla and Jaguar). I'm toying with the A7/Q8. Price for the same equipment level is similar or higher, but no tax savings and no "economical" options like PHEV or diesel. I'm already doing PHEV and buying gas has lost its charm.

Things that will make me reconsider:
  • EPA range has got to be around 210-230 and that is a tall order based on preliminary data. With a WLTP range of 248, Audi could score a less than 200 mile EPA range. IMHO, that would be dire for sales.
  • Electrify America needs to start rolling out a lot more stations for me to take delivery. None of my distance driving routes are currently supported. That sucks.
IMO, if either of these things happen, there will be plenty of cars available in the US for new customers. In Europe, not so much.

I don't want to buy a Tesla. They're tech is top tier, but build quality & looks & service is something I can't settle for. The interior of a Tesla is rental car boring...except for that screen. The Jaguar is still on the table for me.
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Old 01-11-2019, 05:25 PM
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I think it is a reasonable assumption that the etron will depreciate pretty much the same as any other vehicle and because it is an EV, the depreciation curve likely steepens. I don't believe that having 1 of 999 Edition One specification (I also have a reservation) will slow the depreciation. Dropping like a rock is a good description of what will happen. I always figure 20 - 25% in the first year and for an EV, it will retain a bit less than 50% of its original price in 4 years. Unless this is a very long term buy, leasing is something to consider. Either way, it will be expensive to own pretty much like buying any new vehicle.

Last edited by GiftCard; 01-11-2019 at 06:08 PM.
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Old 01-11-2019, 05:39 PM
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I can't comment on the demand or hard numbers but I'll give my opinion on resale value. The world is moving toward transportation electrification and that will help the resale value. Unfortunately, technology moves fast and these first generations are going to lose value more like smartphones than cars traditionally have. Tesla has done well with resale value but that was when there was little competition. With much more competition and technology changing rapidly, e-tron could potentially lose value faster than expected. It all depends on how things play out. I would also consider this model a first run base model. There's already reports that a S model is coming and I think that's a necessity considering the lead Tesla has in terms of 0-60 type specs. Then there's the Taycans 800V battery and 350kw charging system coming to the Audi GT. Even with e-tron being a new car, you can already see obvious future improvements that will lower the value for the early adopters. Another key will be what other competition is out there. e-tron is really only competing in the Tesla, Jaguar, Mercedes, BMW price range. So it really depends on how these companies are innovating over the next few years. The e-trons range seems very average compared to the whole market at this time. The removal of the 75kwh battery Tesla X/S could mean that larger capacities are coming. If that happens, the e-trons range may need a bump up sooner than expected.

I also ordered an Edition One. I think its currently rare because its still a small (but growing) market, not because there's massive unfilled demand.
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Old 01-12-2019, 08:10 AM
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Originally Posted by robertsalem View Post
anyone have any real insight on the demand or reservation list for the eton? i heard the first edition is full but really how long out is the reservation list? will this be something that will hold its value or drop like a rock? Seems new audi s are having a hard time moving, new a7, q8,a8 all over the showrooms. rewind 7 years ago and when audi launched a new model it was order only, full msrp. i placed an order for first edition wondering if really that rare. I'm a fan, not bashing, simply observations.
With outgoing A7s getting $10k starting discounts, that makes it hard for someone to justify the new 19...until such time as there are no more 18's to be had, which is fast approaching (under 700 cars remain nationwide in a pure A7, ). That being said, there are less than 550 2019 A7's on the ground right now too, so not sure where this "build up" is happening. The dealers who ordered a bunch did so for a reason...they know it will be something they can move, and they wanted them arriving sooner than later. Easier to floorplan stock and have it available, vs trying to convince someone to wait 4 months (or more, as is the case for the Q8 for example) for an ordered car

There are more A6's out there than A7's (as is always the case based on pricepoints alone), but it too suffers the same current fate as the outgoing A7. But that inventory is shedding fast because of the MY18 incentives. There are under 700 3.0 A6's left now, and around 1200 2.0s. (quattro, I didn't look at FWD because so few exist to begin with)

A8's never sell well - they never have. Certain regions do well with them (the triangle of NY region/South Florida Region/LA region). Beyond that, it's just not that sort of mover, a few hundred cars a month is where they fall.

Q8's seem to be regional. Lots of us out there have done well with them. They didn't do a huge push with it, certainly not along the lines of the then-new Q5. Time will tell, but I think overall it will be a successful addition to their lineup. I've had people bump themselves up to it when originally considering other cars in our lineup. That, to me anecdotally, is always a step in a positive direction.

E-Trons I think will be regional to start with too, just till the the hardware catches up for more nationwide charging. The Jaguar seems to get really good reviews - hopefully I will get to try one out soon. The E-Tron for sure is more a niche vehicle too....but it's a necessary toe in the water for the brand

Last edited by SCarGuy; 01-12-2019 at 08:16 AM.
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Old 01-12-2019, 09:58 AM
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When do you think will the e-Trons (that have been ordered/reserved) start arriving at US dealers? Do you have any guesses as to the number of e-Trons that have been reserved in the US? In Europe?
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Old 01-12-2019, 09:59 AM
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I haven't looked so I don't know, sorry
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Old 01-12-2019, 11:28 AM
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Originally Posted by LavaGrau_A3 View Post
Seems I read that the reservations were over 10,000 worldwide. That's the only info they've put out there. IIRC, yearly production is scheduled to be only 20,000 units, so supply is pretty low.

I like the car. I like the size and the look. Options are fine as far as I'm concerned (didn't opt for first edition).
Pricing is pretty competitive in the EV segment (vs Tesla and Jaguar). I'm toying with the A7/Q8. Price for the same equipment level is similar or higher, but no tax savings and no "economical" options like PHEV or diesel. I'm already doing PHEV and buying gas has lost its charm.

Things that will make me reconsider:
  • EPA range has got to be around 210-230 and that is a tall order based on preliminary data. With a WLTP range of 248, Audi could score a less than 200 mile EPA range. IMHO, that would be dire for sales.
  • Electrify America needs to start rolling out a lot more stations for me to take delivery. None of my distance driving routes are currently supported. That sucks.
IMO, if either of these things happen, there will be plenty of cars available in the US for new customers. In Europe, not so much.

I don't want to buy a Tesla. They're tech is top tier, but build quality & looks & service is something I can't settle for. The interior of a Tesla is rental car boring...except for that screen. The Jaguar is still on the table for me.
Actually, annual production will be closer to 50K units on the E-Tron, with factory and battery capacity to go higher if needed. (second production site in China is available if and when needed for the China market) A little birdie told me E-tron could get a EPA 225 mile rating, that seems low to me, but lets wait and see how much of the 95 kWh battery they are using as the recent charging data from fastned shows E-Tron charging at 50kW at 97% SOC, which says they have a large top buffer.

I-Pace production has now gone past 2500 per month produced since Magna Steyr added a shift in late November, so I-Pace could see even higher production going forward if there is demand.

LG Chem battery factory in Poland has finished its second expansion, and is rolling now. Construction has started on the third expansion, that LG announced will get them to 20 GWH annual production from the Poland facility by the end of 2020. I am guessing this additional production will go to VW ID products, but no confirmation of that yet.

Electrify America currently has over 300 stations with at least permit submitted or under development, there are about 30 more sites per month expected for the next 6 months. Last I heard there are + or - 75 stations running, and about 75 more that have the construction completed, and will be open soon. Work was slow from Nov-Jan because retailers do not want construction vehicles taking up their valuable parking spaces during that time of year. Let's not forget, EA is a wholly owned VW company, they do not care to rush open their chargers until they have vehicles in the market. As E-Tron gets closer, you will see EA operate with more urgency IMHO.
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Old 01-12-2019, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by perlfather View Post
When do you think will the e-Trons (that have been ordered/reserved) start arriving at US dealers? Do you have any guesses as to the number of e-Trons that have been reserved in the US? In Europe?
May-June USA arrival for the E-Tron, limited quantities, and by August there will be larger quantities. I estimate there are 8k deposits in the USA, and about 16K worldwide, not incl China. Pre Production Models are making the rounds now, dealers inviting reservation holders, and people who have gotten on the information list to see them in the 1st qtr. I know several EV consumers that are waiting to see, EPA rating, Real world charging, quality, and initial reliability, before committing.
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Old 01-12-2019, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Tom-ETRON View Post
May-June USA arrival for the E-Tron, limited quantities, and by August there will be larger quantities. I estimate there are 8k deposits in the USA, and about 16K worldwide, not incl China. Pre Production Models are making the rounds now, dealers inviting reservation holders, and people who have gotten on the information list to see them in the 1st qtr. I know several EV consumers that are waiting to see, EPA rating, Real world charging, quality, and initial reliability, before committing.
Just a quick point that by reserving an etron, there is no commitment to purchase. Your dealer can take delivery and if after sitting it or even taking a test drive, you get your $1,000 deposit back if you change your mind. The dealers won't mind as they will likely easily sell the etron to someone else.
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