mmmkrusher

Looking at buying a used TT RS, but having a hard time understanding the market.

I'm seeing a 20% depreciation after year 1, here: https://usedfirst.com/cars/audi/tts/

Does the TT RS follow the same curve as TTS? Would be kinda ****ty if it does, given that it's a higher end version.

I haven't seen any 2017 TT RS for sale, but have seen 2018's. But pricing between the TTS and TT RS seem all over the board, and it's hard to get a sense of what I should be paying for a used 2018 TT RS with 2019 coming up. I've noticed some dealers have been starting to accelerate price drops over the past month, while others are charging near new prices for used models.

Overall it seems the TT market is pretty small, with low supply and low demand. It occupies a strange space in the market as it seems to be on the lower end of high end - with alternatives being a cayman or m2.

BlackOptic

Pretty sure the Mk3 TTRS started in 2018. And, maybe ended - we aren't sure if a 2019 TTRS will be offered. If it is, it will be late in 2019 or a 2020.

I'm on the hunt too. A TTRS (without a spoiler)... or a 2018 TTS... or perhaps the new 2019 TTS. The market will flood in the next 9 - 12 months with lease ending 2017-2018 TTS's and TTRS's. I am trying to hold my enthusiasm.

MCRN

[QUOTE=The market will flood in the next 9 - 12 months with lease ending 2017-2018 TTS's and TTRS's. I am trying to hold my enthusiasm.[/QUOTE]

With only about 2000 or so units sold annually in the US, have we seen numbers that indicated the percentage sold that were leased? I am not questioning your prediction, but I am just curious since for at least the initial 12-18 months of the sales release of the MK3 the TT lease program was very cost prohibitive as Audi FS did not subsidize the MF like they do for the mainline A and Q models. I recall in 2017 when we were running the numbers on a 36 month lease, the money factor on the lease (buy rate from Audi - not marked up by the dealer) resulted in a rent charge of over $7k for the term which lead us to a buy. I do recall the residual being above 60% which helped offset the high MF, but for me this was a VERY cost prohibitive lease program that led us to never consider the lease over just buying.

To the OP: I have seen 3 used TTRS go on the market in my region (DFW) and every single one of them sold quickly (within a week) for what appears to be 'around' 10-15% off MSRP. Most were extremely low mileage. Low production niche version of an already niche car, hard to apply book value depreciation schedules to this one.

BlackOptic

Ha ha ha.. When I say "flood"... I mean we might see two for sale per month, rather than one. :-)

ourlee

Vegas-roadster

While the Mk 3 TTRS made its worldwide debut in MY 2017, the first MY sold in the US was 2018 as TT models in the US always lag by one year. Sales of the Mk 3 TT in the US by CY were 3044 in 2016 (the most sold since 2008), 2294 in 2017 (the second most sold since 2008) and 1273 in 2018 (not including December sales estimated at around 25). A very large chunk of CY2018 sales were TTRS. The 2018 figures are about the same as the last 2 years of Mk 2 US sales. So yeah, "flood" is relative since the average dealership sold a whopping 1 new TT every 2 months in 2018. Mk2 US sales fell far short of the Mk 1 debut and Mk 3 sales are far short of the Mk 2. I've tried to find hard numbers on the % of TTs that are leased, even discussing it with my local GM and sales manager but they can't get hard numbers of % leases either. I can't speak to 2017 but 2016 lease rate was estimated at about 50% of TTs sold. Too many TTs were imported in 2016 and they had to do something to get them off the lots. Also, while lease rates might sound high to an individual, there were a lot of corporate leases which are not as price sensitive.
As I've posted several times in this forum, there will be more MY2016 TTs coming off lease in CY2019 than were sold new in CY2018 to (relatively) glut the market. I've seen used 2016 TT prices drop about 10% in the past 6 months with Audi dealers asking (and not selling) CPO 2016 roadsters with around 15K miles for $35k-$36k. I've seen similar non-CPO coupes offered under $30K in the past few months. I expect another 10% drop in CY2019. As most leases are 3 years, don't expect to see many off-lease 2017s until 2020.
There was a "flood" of used 2018 TTRS in the market last summer as Audi USA sold their corporate TTRS fleet to dealers. The sales of TTRS in the US was surprisingly (to me) strong compared to the Mk 2 sales as there were a lot of new 2012 TTRS on the lots at the start of 2013. However, dealers still need to be cautious in 2019 as there were new MY2013 TTRS sitting on US lots in early 2015 begging for a buyer. The delay in 2019MY TTRS production should help demand. One thing I noticed in the Mk 2 and see again in the Mk 3 is that Audi dealers are artificially propping up used TTRS prices so that new TTRS are more attractive. In 2013 and 2014 you could find a low mileage TTRS at non-Audi dealers for $10k-$15k less than Audi dealers but given the low sales they did not pop up often. Because of ow sales, you really must search nationwide to get the best deal on a TT.

big residual

Fully US-centric notes:

Residual value on a US $71K Mk3 TTRS 3-year lease: $40,535, or around 57%.

A quick scan of 10 2013s on sale right now on the big boards had an average asking price of $37,470 and a median of $36,800. There were some high prices I might exclude and one lowball... and then you're looking at a cluster right around $35K. No idea of 2013 actual, MSRP but base was $58K and optioned at $60-61K might be a good swag. 35/61 = 57% after 5 model years. For 2012s, with a sample of 9 for sale, the average ask was $36,713 and median was $37,000.

I don't have data on values in 2015-2016 was as the Mk2s hit the 3 year mark, but the data above would suggest they had at least retained 57% of their value, and most likely more than that. That doesn't mean the Mk3s will match.

As far as used or new 2018 prices... RS3s are a more active market, so it may be telling to look what those have done over the past year+.

Possible factors:
- I've read there were only about 1,000 Mk2s built worldwide and because US were 6MT and coupe only, the US slice was relatively small. If it turns out the US is a large slice for Mk3s proportionately, and the 2019s make it to the US, then you probably end up w/ more Mk3 supply than Mk2s, in relative terms. Likewise, there was only a two-year run of Mk2s with a hiatus for 5 years. What happens if there are 2020 and beyond TTRSs available new? It would seem likely to steepen the depreciation curve.
- The Mk2s were 6MT only and the Mk3s are DSG only, which may mean the Mk2s have more enthusiast demand in the resale market. That said, the Mk3s Evo engine and its tuning potential could offset some of the man-pedal crowd factor.
- The presence of the RS3 in the US (as well as more RS models in general) may dilute demand for the Mk3s... buyers have 5-cyl RS choices and the number of 8Vs outstrips those of 8Ss. They're different cars, people can and do some degree of cross-shopping.

Bottom line, my assumption is that a Mk3 TTRS will retain about 57% of their value after 3 years. It's the number leaping off the page here from multiple places so it seems as right as any other. What happens after 3 years is anyone's guess.

Vegas-roadster

Your production numbers for the Mk 2 TTRS are in error. The plan was for the US to get 600 TTRS for the 2012 and 2013 MY and that number was exceeded both years. I don't have the exact number for the 2013 MY but it was similar to the 2012.
Thank you for taking the time to contact us at Audi of America seeking production numbers for the 2012 Audi TT RS Coupe sold in the United States. We are delighted to hear from you! It is always a pleasure to hear from our Audi family members.
Our records reflect the following:
· There were 641 Model Year 2012 TT RS 2.5 COUPE 2-DR 6-SPD QUATTRO vehicles sold in the United States.
· There were 140 Model Year 2012 TT RS 2.5 COUPE 2-DR 6-SPD QUATTRO vehicles with Phantom Black Pearl Effect exterior sold in the United States.

SCarGuy

most TTS and TTRS of the current gen were not leased in the first place, but purchased - most of mine sold for 18 were cash fwiw, and all of them went to people who have owned Audi's before with 1 exception

On the regular TT (coupe or roadster), it's about a 50/50 split between purchase and lease

Vegas-roadster

Thanks for the info. Surprising to me that the lease % for the TTS and TTRS is low, but about 50% for the base TT is consistent with everything else I've heard.