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Cap Cost, Residual Percentage and Money Factor

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Cap Cost, Residual Percentage and Money Factor

 
Old 04-13-2019, 09:13 PM
  #21  
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Originally Posted by jeffbtx View Post
So much angst over so many unknown - cap cost, residual, MF, status milestones (production v. leaving plant v. en-route), and range among some of the most talked about - I think I'm just going to have to be patient until some of the unknowns become known.
you should re read most of the post,all of your unknowns are knowns. don't be too philosophical.
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Old 04-14-2019, 07:34 AM
  #22  
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I'll give you some hard data points for the Jag i-Pace. One of the four Jag dealers in Houston has a very lightly optioned base model i-Pace. It's what I would order. They have it because a customer ordered it that way, but then took a launch Edition when they arrived before his car. The Dealer said they would never get one for stock, that way. It's the way I would order one. The MSRP is $71,573. Without much effort, the dealer took $2500 off that price when I said that I would wait until after Sept 1, when any new Texas $2500 EV grant starts up. Jag is offering 0% financing or a discount of $5K if you bring your own money/financing. That made the car $64,073 before TT&L. If I were buying it and getting the $7500 Fed TC, my cost would be $61,854 out the door.

So, some numbers from Jag: For a 5000 mi annual lease residual is 45% for 36 months and monthly charge is $1574 at $0 cash up front. Sales rep had no idea if there was any credit for the Federal TC in the deal. For Jag zero finance charge, payments are $1612 for o down and 48 months ( $1075 at 72 months). Offset this with $7500 back from the Fed TC in the first year.

Doing the math: 48 month finance zero interest total payments at 39 months is $62,868 less $7500 TC for total cost of $55,368. The Jag lease residual at 39 months is 43%. This is as accurate a number as one can project at this time and would suggest, at best, a residual of 43% or $30,776. If you sold the car at that time, it would put the cost at $24,591 for 39 months, or $630/month. Good deal? Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. But it does show that the tax credit offsets some of the pain of low residuals.

Someone please show me the error in the following logic, which takes advantage of the ZERO finance charge being offered by Jag:

72 month financing, zero down: $1075/month--this is the number I have on my quote.

39 months X $1075 is total paid $41,925
tax credit $7,500
out of pocket $34,425
39 month residual of 43% $30,776
total cost $3,649/39 is $93.56 per month

With numbers like this, the residual could be 25% and it's still a good deal--The magic of ZERO finance charge and a tax credit.

If my logic is correct, all of us pray for a zero finance deal from AFS.

So, please check my logic!!!
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Old 04-14-2019, 07:51 AM
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Originally Posted by ted99 View Post

Someone please show me the error in the following logic, which takes advantage of the ZERO finance charge being offered by Jag:

72 month financing, zero down: $1075/month--this is the number I have on my quote.

39 months X $1075 is total paid $41,925
tax credit $7,500
out of pocket $34,425
39 month residual of 43% $30,776
total cost $3,649/39 is $93.56 per month

With numbers like this, the residual could be 25% and it's still a good deal--The magic of ZERO finance charge and a tax credit.

If my logic is correct, all of us pray for a zero finance deal from AFS.

So, please check my logic!!!
You are leaving out the payoff on the loan (33X$1075= $35,475). So if you sell it for the $30,776, you still owe $4,699 + it cost you $34,425 for the first 39 months for a total of $39,124 or $1,003 a month.

Last edited by SYMAWD; 04-14-2019 at 07:55 AM.
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Old 04-14-2019, 08:11 AM
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Originally Posted by ted99 View Post
total cost $3,649/39 is $93.56 per month
Uh, this is not how car leases work. If we could all own cars outright after a 3 year lease, and then resell it back for the "residual", then I'm gonna go out and lease myself a fleet of Rolls Royces now.
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Old 04-14-2019, 08:57 AM
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Originally Posted by SYMAWD View Post
You are leaving out the payoff on the loan (33X$1075= $35,475). So if you sell it for the $30,776, you still owe $4,699 + it cost you $34,425 for the first 39 months for a total of $39,124 or $1,003 a month.
Yes, stupid me. Better than leasing as you can still get the tax credit, but you still have the hassle/risk of the resale. Although you do have the flexibility of ending the arrangement whenever you want. Could do better if residual is higher than Jag's estimate, but the history of EV's is that resale is lousy for everything except Tesla. I still maintain that this is hard financial data on a competing car to the e-Tron.
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Old 04-14-2019, 09:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Francis Y. View Post
Uh, this is not how car leases work. If we could all own cars outright after a 3 year lease, and then resell it back for the "residual", then I'm gonna go out and lease myself a fleet of Rolls Royces now.
Not applicable as I wasn't doing calculations on a lease, just using the lease residual as a stand in for resale. However, the error of my "perpetual motion machine" is shown in the other post.
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Old 04-14-2019, 09:06 AM
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Originally Posted by ted99 View Post
Not applicable as I wasn't doing calculations on a lease, just using the lease residual as a stand in for resale. However, the error of my "perpetual motion machine" is shown in the other post.
None of the calculations make sense. You cannot take the federal tax credit off of a lease unless they use it as a cap reduction. Also, the whole reason you cannot use a lease residual to stand in for resale is that you do not own a car after a lease; the residual is what you would have to pay to buy the car you borrowed (if there was an agreement from the leasing company for this).
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Old 04-14-2019, 09:37 AM
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^^^^ I quit. Apples and oranges
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Old 04-14-2019, 10:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Francis Y. View Post
None of the calculations make sense. You cannot take the federal tax credit off of a lease unless they use it as a cap reduction. Also, the whole reason you cannot use a lease residual to stand in for resale is that you do not own a car after a lease; the residual is what you would have to pay to buy the car you borrowed (if there was an agreement from the leasing company for this).
His numbers were for a finance. All he did was use the 43% to estimate the value of the car 39 months into a 72 month finance.
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Old 04-14-2019, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted by SYMAWD View Post
His numbers were for a finance. All he did was use the 43% to estimate the value of the car 39 months into a 72 month finance.
Oh, I see. Well, still made no sense as you don't own a car after 39 months of payments on a 6 year loan.
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