Hi, all. Thought it would be interesting (depressing) to see what people have been offered by dealers when they go to trade or explore a deal. I know this can change based on condition, location, vehicle trading towards, dealer type, etc. I'll kick things off:

Year: 2022
Model: SUV
Trim: Premium Plus
Mileage: ~10,500
Trade: $38,000
State: FL

 

Local dealer is refusing to buy any EVs, but offered me a trade value of $44k for either lease or purchase of a new model.

 

Generally speaking, the depreciation curve is the steepest in the first couple of years. Luxury cars tend to do worse. Economic condition, and the demand for specific model used cars will play a huge part.

e-tron is a very well built car IMO, but it's not an efficient car compared to other EVs. Most consumers still have range anxiety and battery longevity (especially when buying a pre-owned). If you're not planning to keep the car for at least 5 years or more, it's better to lease. At least you'll know exactly how much you'll lose in that time frame. Since I bought mine, I'm going to enjoy the crap out of it. Already have over 13k miles in less than a year.

 

A few weeks ago I was offered 57k trade-in for my '22 Chronos with 10k miles. I paid about 86k for it out the door. In other words, the car lost 1/3 of it's value in 11 months which is a horrific amount of depreciation for ANY car. In short, I said no.

What depreciation like this is going to do is encourage me to keep the car for the long term instead of trading it in. My original plan was to trade up for a next generation EV in 2026 shortly before the factory warranty on my '22 is about to expire. That won't be happening now. I have already decided to keep the car, buy an extended warranty, and hand it down to my daughter when she gets her drivers license in 6.5 years. What could derail my plan is if the car starts to develop a lot of expensive problems that are not covered by an extended warranty. In that case, I will dump it for whatever I can get for it and buy something other than an Audi next time.

I know that dealerships don't like to see this kind of depreciation either. It means that they will be selling fewer cars in the future because people like me are keeping our current vehicles longer than we might have wanted to. I have a feeling that we will be seeing more extended warranty threads as the resale value of these cars continues to plummet. By the time the factory warranty on my '22 expires I expect this car to be worth no more than 25% of what I paid for it. There is no sense trying to sell it at that point.

In hindsight, I should have leased it.

 

On the lease quote I just got for a '24 Q8e Prestige the residual value in 36 months is listed as $47.6k. Sale price of $89.8k.

 

In June I was offered 47k trade in for a 2021 Sportback Prestige with 25k miles on it. I declined.

 

Tesla dropping prices across the board on their EVs + qualifying tax credits really did a number on EV resale values. The E-Tron only having 200 miles of range at best is going to turn a lot of buyers off. Figure you should only charge to 80% on a day to day basis and that drops to 170-180. From there, factor in really hot or cold weather and that drops it even further to less than 150. Car's still cool though, for a day to day commuter, I'd still love one.

2019 Prestiges are in the mid 30s. I suspect by the end of the year it'll be in the high 20s/bottom 30s. Lots of value there

 

With the current $7500 incentive on a lease, buying only saves you a few thousand depending on your trade and down payment.
So leasing might be a good hedge against free-falling used EV values in the coming years, or not if values increase or hold steady. Either way you're throwing away 40-45k. No way to make that look pretty.

 

Recurrent Auto is telling me my 2019 Prestige is valued at $33k at the moment ($33,500 with the "battery condition premium"). It was over $60k just a few months ago. The market must have really tanked.

 

If I was in the market for a new Etron, I would pick up a clean certified preowned Prestige at about 1/3 the cost of a new one.